Ontario is currently on a trajectory to have 1,000 new cases of COVID-19 a day in the first half of October, according to modelling shared by the province Wednesday (Sept. 30).
According to the modelling, cases are currently doubling every 10 to 12 days, approximately.
On Wednesday, the province is reporting an increase of 625 cases of the novel coronavirus and four deaths related to the virus after nearly 35,800 COVID-19 tests were completed.
This brings the province’s total case count to 51,710 and Ontario’s COVID-19-related death toll to 2,848.
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Toronto is reporting 288 new cases Wednesday, Peel region saw 97 new cases, while Ottawa is reporting 64.
Other regions are seeing a slight uptick in the number of new cases they’re seeing.
Halton is reporting 33 new cases, York Region is reporting 41, and in Durham, they’re reporting 25 new cases.
Sixty-two per cent of newly confirmed cases are in people under the age of 40, but while sharing the current COVID-19 modelling, the province noted that cases are climbing across all age groups.
The number of cases that have been confirmed resolved Wednesday is up by 457, bringing the total number of resolved cases in the province to 43,907.
The number of people hospitalized with the virus is up to 150, with 35 people being treated in intensive care units (ICUs) across Ontario and 17 patients require a ventilator.
In relation to newly released modelling, ICU occupancy is currently steady, the province says in a release, but it is predicted that admissions will likely rise with an increase in COVID-19 patients being hospitalized.
“COVID-19 continues to be a serious threat in our communities, and today’s modelling shows the importance of adhering to public health measures,” said Christine Elliott, Deputy Premier and Minister of Health, in the release.
“Over the summer we saw how our collective efforts helped slow the transmission of COVID-19, we must not let our guard down now as we head into the cold and flu season. We all need to do our part and continue to follow all public health measures in place to contain and stop the spread of the virus.”
The modelling predicts that Ontario may see between 200 and 300 patients with COVID-19 in ICU beds per day if cases continue to grow at its current pace.
In April, Ontario’s projections said the pandemic death toll could range from 3,000 and 15,000 people depending on the actions taken by government and members of the public.
The Public Health Agency of Canada released its own latest modelling last week, predicting up to 9,300 deaths across the country by early October if the current trajectory of the epidemic continues.
“With the recent rise in cases, we limited private social gatherings and tightened public health measures for businesses and organizations to reduce the transmission in our communities,” said Dr. David Williams, Chief Medical Officer of Health in the provincial press release.
“We wanted to release this modelling to be open about the challenges our province faces, and the important work we all need to do to flatten the curve.”
— with a file and photo from The Canadian Press